TL;DR: The JPMorganChase 2026 Business Leaders Outlook surveyed 2,471 US business leaders and found 76% of small businesses expect higher 2026 revenue, 74% are optimistic about their company's outlook, and 59% now consider AI essential for competitiveness within three years. At the same time, top concerns are economic uncertainty (49%), revenue growth (33%), and tariffs and labor (31% each). For North Carolina small businesses, the takeaway is concrete: optimism is real, but it has to be backed by a written technology and AI roadmap, not vibes. Build the roadmap now while customer demand is still strong.
Key takeaway: "AI essential within three years" is the new "having a website." If your roadmap does not name a primary AI use case, a budget, and a measurable outcome, you are already behind your competitor who has one.
Want a 12-month NC SMB technology and AI roadmap? Contact Preferred Data Corporation for a 90-Minute Technology Strategy Session. Local, BBB A+ since 1987. Call (336) 886-3282.
What did the JPMorganChase 2026 Business Leaders Outlook actually find?
The JPMorganChase 2026 Business Leaders Outlook is a January 2026 survey of 2,471 US business leaders at small businesses and midsize firms that found broad-based optimism alongside real headwinds. The survey reported 76% of small businesses and 73% of midsize firms expecting higher 2026 revenue, with more than half planning to add jobs.
The headline numbers most relevant to a North Carolina SMB:
- 74% of small businesses are optimistic about their company's outlook for 2026 (versus 76% in July 2025, holding steady).
- 60%+ of small business owners feel more positive about their business now than at any point in the past five years.
- 59% consider AI essential for competitiveness within three years.
- Top challenges: economic uncertainty (49%), revenue/sales growth (33%), tariffs (31%), labor (31%).
- Owner responses: building cash reserves (47%), renegotiating supplier terms (36%), increasing marketing and technology investment.
Primary source and reporting: JPMorgan Chase corporate news release, Stock Titan, BusinessWire, and Morningstar.
The June 2026 U.S. Chamber Q2 Small Business Index adds important nuance: inflation remains the top SMB concern at 53% (up from 45% last quarter, 17 consecutive quarters as the leading challenge), and tariff uncertainty is now visibly affecting hiring. The 2026 picture is "growing, but cautious."
Why does this matter for a North Carolina small business?
This matters for a North Carolina SMB because the gap between businesses that have a written technology and AI roadmap and those that do not is widening in 2026, not narrowing. Optimism is a tailwind, but tailwinds do not survive an inflation-induced cost squeeze, a tariff shock, or a customer demand spike without a documented plan to invest the right way.
Three specific NC realities to overlay on the national survey:
- Piedmont Triad manufacturing is recovering unevenly. Furniture, textiles, and Tier-2 industrial suppliers are seeing demand stabilize but margin pressure rising. Technology investment that does not improve margins is the wrong investment.
- Local labor pressure persists. The Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte corridors are competing nationally for talent; an SMB that adds AI for back-office leverage gets headcount relief faster than one that adds AI for marketing flash.
- Customers expect digital experiences. A regional manufacturer's customers (OEMs, distributors, dealers) increasingly expect web portals, EDI, and real-time order status. That is a technology project that grows revenue, not a cost center.
Optimism plus inflation plus customer modernization pressure equals a clear answer: the businesses that win 2026 are the ones that turn 12 months of optimism into a 12-month execution roadmap.
Key takeaway: Optimism is fuel. A written roadmap is the engine.
Want a quick view of where AI and managed IT pay back fastest for your business? Explore Preferred Data AI Transformation services or call (336) 886-3282.
What does "59% see AI as essential" actually mean for a small business?
"59% see AI as essential" means a majority of US small business leaders now consider AI a competitive necessity within three years, but the survey does not say what those leaders are actually doing about it, and that is the gap an NC SMB has to close in 2026. Surveys reward intent; competitors reward execution.
A useful framing for the work:
| AI maturity stage | Typical SMB activity | Time to value |
|---|---|---|
| Exploring | Free chat tools, individual experiments | Weeks (small) |
| Tooling | Microsoft 365 Copilot, vertical AI features (SaaS) | 1-2 quarters |
| Workflow | AI integrated into specific processes (quoting, intake, RFPs) | 2-3 quarters |
| Platform | Custom AI features in customer-facing systems | 6-12 months |
| Transformative | AI changes the business model | 12-24 months |
Most NC SMBs in 2026 are in stage 1 or 2. The compounding gains start at stage 3 (specific workflows). The competitive advantage shows up at stage 4 (customer-facing). The realistic 12-month target for most SMBs is stage 2-3, with a clear plan to reach stage 4 in year two.
Federal Reserve research backs the staged approach: a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta study found nearly 60% of smaller firms plan to invest less than $20,000 in AI in 2026; executives expect AI to raise productivity by an average of 2.25% over three years. Small investment, real returns, IF the investment is targeted.
How should an NC small business build a 12-month technology and AI roadmap?
An NC small business should build a 12-month technology and AI roadmap by anchoring it to two or three measurable business outcomes, sequencing work in 90-day sprints, naming an accountable owner, and gating each sprint on results, not activity. A roadmap that does not promise specific numbers is a wish list.
A practical 7-step roadmap template:
- Pick three outcomes. Examples: "shorten quote-to-cash by 30%," "reduce help-desk tickets per FTE by 25%," "increase qualified pipeline by 20%." Each outcome owns the roadmap.
- Inventory the current stack. ERP, CRM, M365 / Google Workspace, line-of-business tools, AI features already in use, security stack. You cannot plan without knowing.
- Identify the highest-leverage AI workflow. Where does a 60-90 minute task happen daily that AI can shrink? Quote turnaround, RFP response, intake routing, vendor invoice coding.
- Pick a primary AI platform plus a backup. Microsoft 365 Copilot is the right default for most SMBs already in M365; pair with Claude or ChatGPT Enterprise for specialized work. See our AI vendor continuity post for why you need a backup.
- Wire in security and compliance from day one. AI deployed without DLP, SSO, audit logs, or an acceptable-use policy creates risk that erases the productivity gains.
- Sequence in 90-day sprints. Quarter one is foundation (platform, policy, training). Quarter two is the first workflow. Quarter three is the second workflow. Quarter four is measurement and the next-year plan.
- Measure quarterly. Tie each sprint to one of the three outcomes; cancel work that does not move the needle.
If the SMB has fewer than 50 employees and no full-time IT leader, a fractional CIO or vCIO arrangement is the fastest way to actually run the roadmap. That is one of the more common shapes our managed IT engagements take.
Want this roadmap drafted in 90 minutes for your business? Schedule a Technology Strategy Session or call (336) 886-3282.
What does this look like for different NC industries?
This looks meaningfully different across NC industries because what counts as "AI essential" depends on what your customers and operators actually need. The good news is that the roadmap shape is the same; the workflows change.
Industry-specific high-leverage AI workflows:
- Manufacturing. Quoting and RFQ response, vendor invoice coding, plant-floor knowledge capture, predictive maintenance triage. Pair with OT/IT integration so AI insights reach the floor.
- Professional services (legal, accounting, financial). Document review, intake summarization, time-entry coaching, client-portal answer bots over enterprise tooling with strict no-training contracts.
- Construction and industrial services. Submittal and RFI drafting, safety incident summarization, change-order draft generation, jobsite photo classification.
- Healthcare-adjacent. Patient communication drafting, claim-denial first-pass analysis, scheduling automation, with HIPAA-grade enterprise AI only.
- Distribution and wholesale. Customer-specific quoting, order classification, content for product enrichment, inventory anomaly detection.
A "buy an AI tool" approach delivers a $30/seat/month bill and not much else. A workflow-anchored approach delivers measurable margin.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now the right time to invest in technology with tariffs and inflation pressure?
Yes, especially in technology that directly reduces cost-to-serve or shortens cash conversion. The U.S. Chamber data shows 53% of SMBs naming inflation as their top concern; the best response is investments that absorb cost pressure (automation, AI for repetitive work, better vendor management). Cutting tech investment in response to inflation usually deepens the margin problem.
How much should an NC SMB budget for AI in 2026?
A reasonable starting point for a 25-100 employee NC SMB is $10,000-$30,000 in 2026 for primary licensing (Microsoft 365 Copilot or equivalent), specialized AI tools for two or three workflows, training, and a documented AI policy. Federal Reserve survey data shows nearly 60% of smaller firms plan to invest under $20,000. The line item that matters more than dollars is "who is accountable for outcomes."
Do I need a fractional CIO or vCIO?
If you do not have a full-time IT leader and you are running ERP, M365, a website, security stack, and now AI, yes. A fractional CIO or vCIO via a managed IT partner turns a part-time technology problem into someone's actual job, without the cost of a full-time hire.
How do I keep AI investment from becoming shelfware?
By tying each AI deployment to a specific workflow and a measurable outcome, training staff on it (not just rolling it out), and reviewing usage quarterly. The pattern we see in NC SMBs that get value is "one workflow per quarter with one owner and one metric." The pattern that fails is "we bought Copilot for everyone, hoping they would figure it out."
What if my customers do not care about AI yet?
Then the AI investment is for internal leverage, faster quotes, faster support, lower per-FTE cost, not customer-facing. That is often where the highest ROI lives anyway. Customers will catch up; in the meantime, you keep the margin.
How is Preferred Data different from a national consulting firm?
Preferred Data is a High Point, NC firm founded in 1987 with 37+ years of IT experience and a 20+ year average client tenure. We deliver technology and AI roadmaps the way an NC SMB actually buys them: outcomes first, monthly, on-site, paired with the managed IT, cybersecurity, AI Transformation, and custom software work that makes the roadmap real, not slides.